Dual in Detroit - Weekend Predictions

Two days, two races, two lots of points to be had - in many ways, the Detroit double header is just as important as the preceding Indy 500, with as many points on offer over the course of the weekend.

Newgarden to the top?

I'm predicting that Josef Newgarden will fare better than series points leader Simon Pagenaud over the two races, and therefore the American driver might well regain the championship lead. However, the Chevrolet powered cars don't seem to like the bumps of Belle Isle, so there's a question mark as to whether Newgarden can crack the top five in either race.

Raging Rossi

Or angry Alexander, perhaps. Rossi did everything he could last week at Indy, but it wasn't enough. Now, on a circuit where grit and fight pay dividends, the Andretti driver is not a bad tip to win at least one of the races.

Herta hurting, O'Ward award?

Poor Pato had to sit out the 500 but fellow rookie Colton Herta didn't fare much better, retiring after just a few laps. The reliability of the Harding Stienbrenner package has been questionable all season. So although logic suggests Herta should come out on top this weekend, I have a feeling Pato might edge his fellow rookie in terms of finishing positions.

Rahal redemption?

Graham has been positive about his car all season, yet hasn't had many decent results to show for it. I'm predicting a tussle between him and his Indy nemesis Seb Bourdais at some point, and this time I have feeling Rahal might come out on top.

Indianapolis 500 Predictions Review

Congratulations to Simon Pagenaud on his first ever Indy 500 win, and for proving that backing anything other than a Penske car at the Brickyard is a pretty dumb thing to do!

However, lets take a look at how the rest of my predictions panned out.

Drinking the Milk

I predicted an Ed Carpenter Racing car to win, and Ed Carpenter himself was in a good spot for most of the race, sitting around fourth position, but fading to sixth after the final restart. The Indianapolis local admitted a few days after the race that he's still scratching his head as to why his car's handling went away at the end.

James Davison did indeed do something spectacular, but it was on pit road and involved getting nerfed by Helio Castroneves, due to a faulty pit speed limiter, and missing his pit box. Cue flying tyres - never a good sight.

Biggest Movers

James Hinchcliffe and Ryan Hunter-Reay did indeed move up by at least ten positions, and Graham Rahal was on course for a top ten finish before his little tête-à-tête with Sebastian Bourdais. Which leads me neatly onto...

In the Wall

Kyle Kaiser in the wall. Zero to hero and back to zero, as predicted. Can't say I'm happy to have got that one right, but there it is all the same.

Felix Rosenqvist joined him later in the race, although he was caught up in someone else's incident, rather than finding the wall all by himself.

And Santino Ferrucci rode his Honda lawnmower through the grass to claim 7th place and Rookie of the Year.  Fine margins.

Newgarden vs Dixon

Newgarden stuck it out in the top ten for the majority of the race, and came home in fourth place to stay in second place in the championship, just one point off new series leader Pagenaud.

Dixon meanwhile was an unfortunate loser in the late race caution period and wound up down in 17th. This leaves him fifth in the championship and with some ground to make up. Most un-Dixon like.

Indianapolis 500 predictions

How do you make a prediction for a race where anybody can win? (As long as they are on the starting gird that is; sorry Fernando)

Lets give it a go at least, and see if we can tease any truth from my logical crystal ball.

Who will be drinking the milk?

First, an attempt at being rational. The Ed Carpenter Racing cars have been quick all month, and although it's brave to back anything other than a Penske, that's what I will do - although I'm not narrowing it down to which ECR driver!

Sticking with rational, a more extreme choice might be Graham Rahal, who says his United Rentals Honda felt great on Carb day - although, unlike Friday, he will have to stay off the wall.

Let's stick in a couple of heart-ruling head possibilities too; Marco Andretti starts 10th looking to lift the Andretti Curse on the 50th anniversary of Mario's win. And Conor Daly starts one place further back in an Andretti car, with his best chance ever of showing his undoubted talent.

And lastly, a hunch which has no basis in logic but which I will feel stupid if I don't mention. James Davison to do something spectacular. Whether this is win, I don't know, but now I have said it and covered my bases!

Biggest Movers

Who is going to move up the field by the greatest margin? Alex Rossi started 31st and finished 4th last year. If James Hinchcliffe can match that, he'll be a happy boy, but a ten place improvement should be the minimum expectation. I also expect Ryan Hunter-Reay and the aforementioned Rahal to gain ten positions, or finish in the top ten.

In the Wall

Anybody can end up with their car a carbon fibre shredded mess, and their dreams of winning the race with it. So this is hard to predict. Santino Ferrucci and Felix Rosenqvist are two young chargers who might be a little too exuberant.

Also, given the zero-to-hero story of Juncos and Kyle Kaiser, wouldn't it just be typical of life to stick him back in the wall again, taking him back to zero and ruining all prospects for a future Hollywood movie. Now I've said that, he'll win the race...

Anything else?

Josef Newgarden needs to finish in the top ten to keep up his championship bid. Scott Dixon always finishes in the top ten, whatever the race. Lets see who finishes highest...

Indy 500 Qualification Predictions Review

After having sat through nearly eight hours of qualifying at the weekend - and been gripped by every minute of it - it's time to once again review my hallowed insights into who would achieve what.

And you know - this time I'm pretty pleased with my crystal ball.

Pole prediction - Ed Jones (Ed Carpenter Racing)

Pole reality - Simon Pagenaud (Penske)

As predicted the ECR cars and Penske machines were all in the Fast Nine, with only Helio Castroneves missing out. Ed Jones had the fastest outright speed at the end of the straights, but couldn't carry as much through the corners. Come the cooler conditions on Sunday, all cars were more consistent over the course of four laps, but it was a bright green Penske on pole.

Bump prediction - Kyle Kaiser (Juncos), Pippa Mann (Clauson-Marshall), Ben Hanley (Dragonspeed)

Bump reality - Max Chilton (Carlin), Patricio O'Ward (Carlin), Fernando Alonso (McLaren)

On another day it might have been different, but I'm glad I was wrong, whilst still feeling for those who missed out.

Hanley and Dragonspeed surpassed all expectations to comfortably qualify, and whilst there were harum-scarum moments for both Kaiser and Mann, they made it in with supreme efforts under pressure. The Juncos team showed that you could still qualify after having a sponsor withdraw, crashing, going to a backup car, and having virtually no practice.

Others I mentioned also squeaked through, Sage Karem redeeming himself on bump day after struggling to find confidence, and my prediction of 'none of the big names are safe' was realised when James Hinchcliffe kept his focus after an 'Oh no, not again!' moment. And big props to the Arrow SPM team for having a backup car ready under three hours after a massive shunt. What an effort. 

As for those who missed out, I predicted O'Ward might struggle, and the young Mexican just never had the speed in his own backup car. With a Red Bull Young Driver deal, he'll go onto better things in the future. But what of Carlin team mate Max Chilton? No crashes, no real issues; he said when interviewed the car felt fine, it just wasn't fast. Unfortunately for Max, thats been the case too many times this year, whatever track he's been on.

And then there's Alonso. Or rather McLaren. A company that prides itself on precision was reduced to throwing any old setup at a recalcitrant car, and sidling up to the big boys of Andretti and Penske to beg and borrow the answers as to what they were doing wrong. Heads have already rolled with the departure of de facto McLaren Indy team leader Bob Fernley, and if McLaren come back next year, you'd hope the preparation would be a little smoother - and more serious.

Indianapolis Qualification Predictions

Since Tuesday IndyCars have been pounding round Indianapolis Motor Speedway, and whilst most have pounded the tarmac, an unlucky few have pounded the wall too.

Saturday marks the first qualifying day, where positions 10 through 30 are set, and then Sunday decides the qualifying order of the 'fast nine' at the front of the field, whilst further back, the slowest three cars will be excluded from the field of 36, as the race allows 33 starters.

So who will take Pole? Who will be in the fast nine? And which three unlucky drivers will be 'bumped' out of the race?

Pole - Ed Jones

The Ed Carpenter Racing cars have looked strong all week, both with and without a tow. Ed Jones' Scuderia Corsa machine has perhaps been the most impressive. I'd expect the ECR cars and the four Penske entries to all be in and around the fast nine.

Bumped - Kyle Kaiser, Ben Hanley, Pippa Mann

I almost don't like to make these predictions, because the pain of not being able to take part in the arguably the world's greatest motor race when you're so, so close to it must be hard to take.

New, small teams such as Ben Hanley's Dragonspeed will be at a disadvantage through not being able to share data with team mates or associated teams. Part-timers, or those who only run the Indy 500 might also struggle. And those who have encountered significant issues - including practice crashes - will have had their preparation disrupted.

So, with a big crash, no sponsor and limited parts, Kyle Kaiser and Juncos Racing are up against it. it's a real shame, as they have been fast in practice until today's shunt, and I hope they prove me wrong and make it into the race.

For Hanley's team, this whole year is about experience. If they do get bumped, I think they will be able to look at the positives more easily than most. But for Mann, it's all about pressure. The team is pretty new, with a sponsor (Driven 2 Save Lives) that's a good cause, and emotional for all those involved. I just have a feeling it might fall unfortunately flat.

I hope I'm wrong about all of the above, but the truth is that three cars and drivers have to sit out the race. James Davison, Sage Karem and rookie Patricio O'Ward might also be in the tail-end mix, whilst with a bad run, no one - even the big names - is really safe.

And lastly, don't forget Fernando Alonso. His McLaren IndyCar team are brand new. This is the first race they have run. They've had a big practice crash and have had to go to the backup car. Getting into the race will be an achievement. Don't be surprised to see Alonso closer to the back than the front.

IndyCar GP Prediction Review

Simon Pagenaud's drive to victory in wet conditions at the IndyCar GP was spectacularly thrilling - and put paid to all my carefully crafted predictions! Time to review them:

1) Josef Newgarden will once again finish in the top five

Nope. Newgarden qualified poorly, but ran a contra-strategy to move himself up the field. All looked to be in place for a strong finish, even accounting for the late race rain moving in, but a dropped wheel during the final pit stops led to him being sent to the back of the field.

Poor qualifying by the driver, a mistake by the pit crew, and a bit of bad luck - Newgarden still holds the championship lead by a narrow margin, but can't afford any more bad results.

2) A Swede (that'll be either Felix Rosenqvist or Marcus Ericsson) will be on the podium

What might have been. Rosenqvist started on pole, but fell away even before the rain really started to make its presence felt. A win is there for the Ganassi driver, but he'll have to put together a perfect weekend.

3) Another race without a full course yellow?

The Swede's conspired against me, with Ericsson throwing it in the wall and bringing out the caution. Brazilian Helio Castroneves bought out the yellows again later when he decided to see if wet tyres worked on wet grass and gravel. They didn't, he got beached.

4) Boom or bust for an aggressive Alexander Rossi

I'm calling this one as correct! Certainly no boom, but plenty of bust for Rossi. After a poor qualifying, he got caught up in a mid-pack incident with Pato O'Ward, and broke a suspension component before even crossing the start line. Although the Andretti mechanics got his car back out, he was several laps down.

5) Carlin to get a top 10 finish

No. Although O'Ward, after a terrible time through practice and quali, and despite being ordered in for a drive-through penalty after nerfing Rossi, was actually running strongly before Castroneves' dirt tracking foray shuffled the pack one last time. Nearly, but not quite.

Five predictions for the Indy GP

IndyCar returns to Indianapolis Motor Speedway this weekend to kick off the month of May with the IndyCar GP.

For those that remember the Formula 1 races at Indianapolis, the course layout is similar, using a section of the oval as well as a road course laid out on the infield to create a technical circuit.

The race last year was won by Will Power, whilst Scott Dixon charged from 18th to finish second, with rookie Robert Wickens rounding out the top three.

This year, with performance so closely matched amongst so many teams and drivers, the field is as unpredictable as ever, but the cream always tends to rise to the top, so here are my five predictions for the Indy GP.

1) Josef Newgarden will once again finish in the top five.

2) A Swede (that'll be either Felix Rosenqvist or Marcus Ericsson) will be on the podium.

3) Another race without a full course yellow?

4) Boom or bust for an aggressive Alexander Rossi

5) Carlin to get a top 10 finish

Lets see how many of these come true...