Monday 20 May 2019

Indy 500 Qualification Predictions Review


After having sat through nearly eight hours of qualifying at the weekend - and been gripped by every minute of it - it's time to once again review my hallowed insights into who would achieve what.

And you know - this time I'm pretty pleased with my crystal ball.

Pole prediction - Ed Jones (Ed Carpenter Racing)
Pole reality - Simon Pagenaud (Penske)

As predicted the ECR cars and Penske machines were all in the Fast Nine, with only Helio Castroneves missing out. Ed Jones had the fastest outright speed at the end of the straights, but couldn't carry as much through the corners. Come the cooler conditions on Sunday, all cars were more consistent over the course of four laps, but it was a bright green Penske on pole.

Bump prediction - Kyle Kaiser (Juncos), Pippa Mann (Clauson-Marshall), Ben Hanley (Dragonspeed)
Bump reality - Max Chilton (Carlin), Patricio O'Ward (Carlin), Fernando Alonso (McLaren)

On another day it might have been different, but I'm glad I was wrong, whilst still feeling for those who missed out.

Hanley and Dragonspeed surpassed all expectations to comfortably qualify, and whilst there were harum-scarum moments for both Kaiser and Mann, they made it in with supreme efforts under pressure. The Juncos team showed that you could still qualify after having a sponsor withdraw, crashing, going to a backup car, and having virtually no practice.

Others I mentioned also squeaked through, Sage Karem redeeming himself on bump day after struggling to find confidence, and my prediction of 'none of the big names are safe' was realised when James Hinchcliffe kept his focus after an 'Oh no, not again!' moment. And big props to the Arrow SPM team for having a backup car ready under three hours after a massive shunt. What an effort. 

As for those who missed out, I predicted O'Ward might struggle, and the young Mexican just never had the speed in his own backup car. With a Red Bull Young Driver deal, he'll go onto better things in the future. But what of Carlin team mate Max Chilton? No crashes, no real issues; he said when interviewed the car felt fine, it just wasn't fast. Unfortunately for Max, thats been the case too many times this year, whatever track he's been on.

And then there's Alonso. Or rather McLaren. A company that prides itself on precision was reduced to throwing any old setup at a recalcitrant car, and sidling up to the big boys of Andretti and Penske to beg and borrow the answers as to what they were doing wrong. Heads have already rolled with the departure of de facto McLaren Indy team leader Bob Fernley, and if McLaren come back next year, you'd hope the preparation would be a little smoother - and more serious.

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